Signs of life or just a dead-cat bounce...

OK been a while since the last post, I figure it's time to show some minor sign of life. Maybe a link dump to warm up with...

For the young ones, who thought bank runs were a relic of the "old world" like the gold standard, Lotus 1-2-3 and EMH, Northern Rock must have been a fascinating read. And if the rumours of low-ball bids end up true, then I will flip out if Northern Rock executives reject the bids because they are "opportunistic" (as seems to be the excuse given by many management teams who are unlikely to be given equity in the acquired entity). Aren't all bids opportunistic?

An interesting take on magic, and its implications for IP law.

Investment bank third quarter reporting season is upon us, with Lehman Brothers and Morgan Stanley starting things off, and Goldman Sachs and Bear Stearns following on Thursday ET (Friday AEST). These firms have been in the middle of the current crisis, so their third quarter results will be very interesting if only as a barometer of the impact of the crisis on its most visible players. By the way, the Bear Stearns and Goldmans results announcements are open to the public; you can dial in for a live conference call (10am ET and 11am ET respectively), or download from their sites afterwards.

Since the last post, our US and UK sources have been reporting doom and gloom... credit markets are closed... devalued portfolios... massive (~US$400B-odd) overhang of loans that no one wants to buy... bankers trying to jump out of reinforced windows and instead bouncing back to the office floor... it's terrible.

Here though, we are seeing some twitching (though I wouldn't say "normality", given how flexible the term is). Semblances of deals are trickling in at a slower yet steady rate. Normally this would make me quite happy because deals = fees = nice fat bonus. The problem, however, is two-fold:
1) there still appears to be some insistence on pricing debt at pre-August levels; and
2) no one wants to commit!

The first issue is pretty easy to solve - you can wait it out until they come crawling back (as happened to a few major local deals already... though the "restructure" of the packages is more froth and optics than an actual restructure).

With the second issue, perhaps remind them of the fact that they are sitting on billion-dollar cash boxes if they don't do any deals - and a lazy balance sheet for a PE firm is (though tastily ironic to me) a sure way to lose your BSD status in the market. This is more of a medium-term approach though... sort of like tapping someone's leg with your boot for hours, and then when they eventually try to get up, they fall into a heap because you've pulped their muscle... but I digress.

Anyway, the situation is a double-edged sword: one the one hand, the crisis has weeded out a lot of terrible deals (though certainly not all...). On the other hand, even those sitting on very good, leverageable (note: must check if this is a bastardisation of the English language) businesses are hesitant to do deals - deals that any banker worth his salt will do without even blinking.

And it is wrecking my already Lara Flynn Boyle-esque social life. I had to turn down several invites because I "am juggling a number of deals"... and so far none of them have gravitated back to my hands yet. So I'm sitting there waiting for signs of life, when I could instead have been out and about, blessing this city's somewhat tolerable establishments with my presence. And I know, I JUST know, that they will all suddenly go live next week - just before the long weekend.