Friday, 6 March 2009

Black Swan

I've been having serious problems with my laptop, and hence unable to write anything. Though it seems to be behaving itself tonight, so let me do a bit of a link dump on some of the more interesting things I've come across during the current phase of the GFC...

BrisConnections
BrisConnections, a consortium tasked with building Brisbane's Airport Link toll road, was politely asked by a significant unitholder to wind itself up (in a thinly veiled attempt by the investor to avoid ponying up the remaining instalments worth $2/unit on securities worth 1/10 of one cent).

The company hit back and says "here's a better idea, how about we wind your sorry ass up".

Quote of the Year (and I know it's early, but this is hard to beat):
"The Goldman Sachs JBWere trader Richard Coppleson has been doing a disappointing impersonation of John Hopoate: inaccurately trying to pick the market's bottom." [link here.]

(For the non-Australians and/or forgetful among you, John Hopoate was a football player who was caught on tape sticking his digits into the backside of unfortunate opponents. We never did figure out why.)

Berkshire Hathaway posts profit declines; Buffett short-term ratings downgraded to "genius" from "demi-god". Long-term ratings remain stable at "unmatchable".

Finally, read "Outliers". And "The Black Swan".

Monday, 9 February 2009

Lawyers

I like lawyers. Most people kindly think of them as a necessary evil, but I think better of them. It probably helps their cause that I have several lawyer friends, and that one day soon, Rockett Girlfriend will be joining their ranks (and thus accelerating my retirement plans... yesssss).

But there are times when you see a glimpse of the seedy underbelly of billable hours, the whoring of legal expertise to the highest bidder, just past the thin veneer of "client relationships" which is nothing but blatant conflicts of interest. Lawyers receive several streams of work from several (and often competing) corporates. In a market that is several notches short of perfect competition (like, oh I don't know, the Australian financial institutions industry), no lawyer can survive by faithfully acting for one player only; they must act for several (and the best ones act for all).

Sure, it is impossible for one lawyer to act for more than one side in one transaction; but there is nothing stopping them from acting for one bank in one transaction, then act against the same bank (but a different division, perhaps) in another transaction. For all the talk of "Chinese walls" and "managing conflicts of interest", is it really possible for a lawyer to disregard the idea that, by negotiating well for one client in one transaction, that he or she might be jeopardising future income from the other side (who is, perhaps, a much better-paying client)?

For the past two months we had been advising one of our debt teams on a leveraged transaction. The borrower is an infrastructure fund, being advised by an investment bank fondly known in the small-pond Aussie industry as "a bunch of douchebags". Said investment bank has a lot of fingers in a lot of pies, which is a lawyer's wet dream because it means a never-ending stream of deals... if you are on their good books.

I was on a conference call last week with two colleagues, discussing and refining the terms and conditions on a draft agreement to line up with our negotiating position. On the other line is our external lawyer, a partner at a top Sydney corporate law firm. The idea was that we would discuss what points we want reflected in the agreement, our lawyer will draft the document as such, then send the document back to the borrower's advisers and lawyers (a different firm - there is at least the appearance of objectivity) so they can tweak it with their negotiation points.

Amongst other points, we were negotiating the definition of "Distributions", which is important because it basically defines how cash can leave the business. In highly leveraged transactions, cash is definitely king. Lenders want it to stay in the business, to support spending, service the debt and generally act as buffer against a downturn. Financial sponsors want it out of the business and into their pockets, because the longer it stays in the business, the greater the risk of losing it, and the lower the IRR on their investment becomes. Typical of highly leveraged transactions is the presence of different tranches of debt; in basic structures, Senior Debt and Subordinated Debt. As the names imply, Senior Debt get priority over the cash flows of the business - its interest and principal get paid first (in return for this relative safety, it charges a lower interest). Subordinated Debt ranks behind Senior in the cash flow priority - in fact, in some cases Sub Debt interest is not paid, it is accumulated instead (oh the boom years, how I miss thy funky structures). In all cases, Sub Debt principal is only paid after Senior Debt principal has been completely paid out.

For some strange reason, the original deal had allowed "Distributions" to include prepayment of principal in Sub Debt... i.e. if the borrower chose to, it could have prepaid Sub Debt principal ahead of Senior Debt (the reasons why this was allowed in the first place is unknown, and for my own sake, I would rather not know). This would be utterly disastrous for Senior Debt, because if things go pear-shaped, there is no cash or Sub Debt to take the first loss. We pick up the conference call at this point:

[Us - Rockett Fuel, CS, BJ] [Lawyer: GR]

Us: "I think we are OK with the rest of the "Distributions" definition, just take out the reference to "principal" in Sub Debt and send it through."

Lawyer: "Really? It doesn't make a difference does it?"

(Quizzical look around the table.)

Us: "Uh... yes it does. We don't want to get paid out after Sub."

Lawyer: "Hang on, let's think this through. I'll tell you what they'll say (NB: "they" being the advisers)... they'll say that a dollar out is a dollar out, no matter if it is paid out as interest, principal, equity dividends or share buybacks. I'm not a banker so maybe I'm missing something, but to me it doesn't seem to make a difference."

(During that little lesson on Capital Structure Theory To Suit You, the mute button was pressed and the phrase "WTF" may or may not have been expressed. We checked to make sure we were, in fact, the ones paying for this billable hour - we were. Un-mute.)

Us: "That is exactly why we don't want Sub principal getting paid out, because we have already allowed them the ability to reduce their capital base by allowing share buybacks."

Lawyer: "OK let's think this through. Let's say you have $20 in earnings and $100 in Sub Debt, and there is $10 of Sub interest due via Distributions. But let's say instead of the company paying $10 out of earnings, it pays it via prepayment of Sub Debt. You still have $110 of capital left over, so on cash basis you are in the same position."

Us: "However we now have only $90 of Sub Debt as buffer, so we have $10 less protection."

Lawyer: "Yes but the same cash went out the door."

(Unknown speaker): "Just delete it, you backstabbing lowlife whore!"

(Pause.)

Lawyer: "OK. By the way, in clause 5 I inserted that you have 2 Business Days to respond to a Clause 5 Notice."

Us: "We didn't ask for that! Why the hell did you do that?"

Lawyer: "Because I know they will ask for it."

I kid you not.

Thursday, 1 January 2009

Happy New Year!

2008. The year of unforeseen events.

It was when ten years of karma caught up with the Bear, as a $2 note.
When Iceland became the first handball-playing nation to become insolvent.
A $700 billion bailout plan was approved, to buy new money printing presses.
When US auto executives feared for their lives, riding in the cars they made.
The year when pirates got so rich, they were using media reps.
And the second-greatest scam ever didn't even involve Nigerian spammers (much to their chagrin).

If you have survived all that in 2008, then you have much to be thankful for - most too obvious to notice.

In 2009, please remember to be kind to those less fortunate - yes, even bankers.

I look forward to 2009, watching more dead cats bounce with you.

Friday, 28 November 2008

Thanksgiving

We normally don't celebrate Thanksgiving here in Oz, mainly because there's no major sporting event we can associate with it and use as an excuse to drink while wearing team/national colours. However, I thought I might as well use the occasion to list some of the things I am thankful for... some career-related, others are just good things.

Rockett Fuel is thankful for:
- a family that kept me grounded, despite the potential for dizzying highs and lows of the job;
- Rockett Girlfriend, who put up with all the times I was late, or stood her up, or wanted to vent about some of the idiots I encountered at/through work... for making me feel like I can take on the world... and because we can use words like "equitable", "leverage", "portfolio" and "Quistclose" in normal conversation;
- my team, one of the most respected in the market, who endured my inane questions, took the brunt of some of my most wicked email retorts... who taught me that to be a good banker, you need to have truly independent thinking... but to be a great banker, you need to have the balls to tell those thoughts to your client - even if it means losing the business;
- for the red football in the office... hours of mindless 1am fun;
- friends in other banks and law firms... for remaining rather cheerful despite our situation... for the endless rounds of coffee, lunches, dinners, absinthe on my birthday, and entertaining gossip... and for the rare combination of being smart, well-paid, but not being total douchebags;
- friends who aren't bankers or lawyers... for pretending to be fascinated by what I do, for all the life advice, and for making life more fun;
- the drycleaning lady who had to clean my suit after my birthday party - fantastic job;
- junk food manufacturers, who fuelled many an all-nighter;
- all the finance blogs I follow (dealbreaker.com, longorshortcapital.com amongst others) which are much funnier than this one.

Looking forward to Christmas!

Monday, 10 November 2008

Under A Rock

Well, I semi-deliberately decided in the past few weeks not to blog because (a) there was too much change to adequately process - not that I did much analysis anyway; and (b) I was a lazy so-and-so.

This week I watched the movie "Match Point" on DVD. Why? Because I am a banker, and currently, bankers have no [meaningful] work to do, so we go home and do what normal people have been doing for years. (Some would ask why now, given bankers don't normally have meaningful work anyway, but that's a discussion for another time.)


Play ping pong. Be sexy.


For those who haven't seen it, the opening sequence of this movie starts with a ball hitting the top of the net, deflecting up in slow motion. The voiceover of our protagonist (played by Jonathan Rhys Meyers) observes:

"The man who said "I'd rather be lucky than good" saw deeply into life... There are moments in a match when the ball hits the top of the net, and for a split second, it can either go forward or fall back. With a little luck, it goes forward, and you win. Or maybe it doesn't, and you lose."

At the moment, that quote just seems so relevant right now. What a different world we would be in had events turned out differently. What would the world have been, had those infamous Hanging Chads of Florida not been so ambiguous?

I've been in a rather introspective mood the past few weeks, mainly because I now have more time than I know what to do with. While I firmly believe that I am in a good place (at least relative to some of my peers, I am sad to say), there is a certain element of luck involved. I could have been toiling away at another job with less intellectual challenge (and commensurately lower pay), had it not been a lucky coincidence that at the same time I resigned, someone else resigned and left the spot which I now currently occupy. Sure, I am now blacklisted by a large multinational bank, but it's just business (right?).

Just my luck as well that the credit crisis struck as I was hitting my stride, translating to thousands of hours of top-notch work, fully rewarded by... keeping my job. But then my luck could have been worse: I could be hearing about my team closing down through gossip from friends. Something I unwittingly unleashed on an acquaintance at a large Euro bank. Oops.

(Dear friend, if by some stroke of terrible luck you are reading this entry, I am so truly sorry and I owe several drinks.)

I am not entirely sure how much longer my too-short stint in the periphery of high finance will last. I would like to think I will find my feet somewhere interesting, ride it out a couple of years, and then see where God decides I can create the least amount of havoc. In the meantime, I WILL try to continue to blog about stuff I find amusing about my little slice of geek heaven (or what's left of it). Who knows, maybe this Obama guy might actually be onto something :)

My Quote of the Week:

"Global Language Monitor, which follows linguistic issues, reports that in the final debate, Mr. Obama spoke at a ninth-grade reading level, while John McCain spoke at a seventh-grade level."

Not sure which is scarier: the fact that Obama thought it necessary to talk down to 9th grade level, or that by talking down to 7th grade level, McCain managed to win 46% of the popular vote.

Wednesday, 24 September 2008

US Investment Transaction

Making the rounds... (courtesy of several websites)


From: Henry Paulson
Date: 9/23/2008
Subject: Supper secret transaction Need you're help

Bright Greetings Dear American:

I need to ask you to support an urgent secret business relationship with a transfer of funds of great magnitude.

I am Ministry of Treasury of the Republic of America. My country has had a crisis that has caused the need for a large transfer of funds of 700 billion dollars US. If you would assist me in this transfer, it would be most profitable to you.

I am working with renowned Mr. Phil Gram, lobbyist for UBS, who will be my replacement as Ministry of Treasury in January. As a Senator, you may know him as the leader of the American banking deregulation movement in the 1990s. This transactin is 100% safe.

This is a matter of great urgency. We need a blank check. We need the funds as quickly as possible. We cannot directly transfer these funds in the names of our close friends because we are constantly under surveillance. My family lawyer advised me that I should look for reliable and trustworthy person who will act as a next of kin so the funds can be transferred.

Please reply with all of your bank account, IRA and college fund account numbers and those of your children and grandchildren to wallstreetbailout@treasury.gov so that we transfer your commission for this transaction. After I receive you're information, I will respond with detailed information about safeguards that will be used to protect the funds.

Wonderful salutations to you cherish friend from Republic of America.

Yours Faithfully Minister of Treasury Paulson


BONUS - Aussie market humour (courtesy of the SMH):

Market humour is doing the rounds while the Prime Minister is at the heart of the market chaos. We can see it now. Imagine Kevin Rudd back in New York at the night club Scores.

Imagine him seated in front of stage where a dancer with her back to him appears not to be wearing a top. Rudd, ever the policy junkie and only too aware of the market turmoil, notices the dancer's flimsy underwear, turns to his financial adviser and says: "I think I'm going to put a ban on shorts."